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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.